Demographic Decline and Rising Dependency Ratio

Chambers of Commerce Call for a National Strategy and a Quebec-Wide Summit

A study led by some Greater Montreal Chambers of Commerce in collaboration with Aviseo Conseil and with the support of the Metropolitan Community of Montreal, highlights a dual risk: a decline in the metropolitan workforce combined with a rising dependency ratio. Together, these trends could place significant pressure on Quebec’s economy and public finances.

MONTREAL, September 23, 2026 —  Greater Montreal Chambers of Commerce today released a study on immigration and the demographic future of Greater Montreal, conducted in collaboration with Aviseo Conseil. Drawing on economic modelling and a survey of 470 businesses, the study concludes that current policies could expose the metropolitan region to a dual shock: a contraction of its working-age population alongside a significant increase in its dependency ratio. This combination could have major economic consequences, place considerable pressure on public finances, and have repercussions across Quebec.

Read the full study.

Given the scale of the challenge, the network is putting forward four key recommendations to the next government: implement immigration policies and thresholds that would reverse the projected demographic decline of Greater Montreal; hold a Quebec-wide summit on the province’s demographic future; establish a Quebec framework for assessing capacity independent of immigration levels; and better align immigration with labour market needs.

Fewer Workers and More People to Support

According to the reference scenario examined in the study, Greater Montreal could lose approximately 142,000 residents by 2051, including more than 113,000 as early as 2035. The decline would be particularly pronounced among people aged 20 to 64. At the same time, the demographic dependency ratio—the number of young people and older adults relative to the working-age population—would increase from 51.7 in 2025 to 63.2 in 2051. Quebec would therefore have proportionally fewer workers to support a population with growing needs.

Between 2022 and 2024, Quebec’s population growth relied entirely on immigration. In Greater Montreal, employment growth also depends on the contribution of immigrants. A shrinking workforce combined with a rising dependency ratio would slow economic growth and reduce the government’s potential revenues at a time when demand for healthcare and social services would increase, placing significant pressure on public finances. As the metropolitan region is Quebec’s main economic, tax and labour market hub, these effects would impact businesses, public services and value chains across all regions.

“Quebec cannot afford the demographic decline of its metropolitan region, especially when it is accompanied by such a significant increase in the dependency ratio. Fewer workers and greater needs would weaken our economy and place major pressure on public finances across Quebec. The question for political parties is simple: are they prepared to accept this trajectory? If not, what is their plan to reverse it?”

— Jean-Denis Charest, President and CEO, Greater Montreal Chamber of Commerce

Four Key Recommendations from the Study

1. Reverse the projected demographic decline of Greater Montreal.
Implement immigration policies and thresholds aimed at reversing the projected demographic decline of the Montreal metropolitan region, using Scenario 2 as a basis for discussion. This planning must be based on a long-term vision and consider temporary and permanent immigration together.

2. Hold a Quebec-wide summit on the province’s demographic future.
Bring together civil society stakeholders to establish a shared vision, a national strategy and a specific action plan to reverse the demographic decline of Greater Montreal. This process should bring together municipalities, chambers of commerce, unions, organizations and experts.

3. Establish a Quebec framework for assessing capacity independently of immigration levels.
Establish a common definition, indicators and measurement tools to assess changes in capacity across regions and according to different immigration profiles, and take action to strengthen that capacity.

4. Better align immigration with labour market needs.
Prioritize economic, skilled and French-speaking immigration and align it with labour market needs. This alignment should also include accelerating the recognition of qualifications in priority sectors and retaining people who are already established, French-speaking and integrated in Quebec.

Capacity Is Neither Uniform nor Fixed

The Network recognizes the real pressures affecting housing, healthcare, education, childcare, transportation and French-language integration. However, it believes that the concept of capacity remains insufficiently documented, poorly defined and too often treated as a uniform ceiling.

Capacity varies from one region to another, within regions themselves, and according to the profile of the people being welcomed. It also evolves based on investments and societal choices. A construction, healthcare, education or childcare worker, for example, can directly contribute to increasing the very capacity that policymakers are seeking to protect. Therefore, before concluding that capacity has been reached, it is necessary to clarify where it has been reached and according to which indicators.

“Quebec must develop a shared vision for its demographic future. This is precisely the purpose of the Quebec-wide summit we are proposing. We need to move away from repeated policy shifts and plan for immigration that is calibrated, predictable and aligned with our economic needs and our capacity. For Montreal, the challenge is also to preserve its status as a major student city and better retain the talent already trained and integrated here. This requires clearer pathways and the development of genuine expertise in welcoming and integrating newcomers.”

— Isabelle Dessureault, President and CEO, Greater Montreal Chamber of Commerce

“The chambers of commerce study sends a clear signal: the demographic evolution of Greater Montreal will have very concrete long-term consequences for the workforce, as well as for housing, transportation and infrastructure planning. These findings should serve as a starting point for an open dialogue on the metropolitan region’s demographic trajectory and on the conditions required for the prosperity of Greater Montreal and Quebec, of which it remains the economic heart.”

— Massimo Iezzoni, CEO,  Metropolitan Community of Montreal

Planning for Temporary and Permanent Immigration Together

The study emphasizes the need to stop treating temporary and permanent immigration separately. Temporary workers and students already live in Quebec, participate in the labour market and represent part of the future pool of permanent residents. Their transition to permanent residency does not constitute a new arrival; conversely, their departure represents the loss of people who are already trained, French-speaking and integrated into Quebec.

The network recommends, among other measures, increasing the proportion of permanent residents drawn from the temporary resident pool, maintaining the Quebec Experience Program (PEQ) and making it a priority pathway for retaining people whose profiles meet Quebec’s needs. It also calls for prioritizing economic, skilled and French-speaking immigration while accelerating the recognition of qualifications in priority sectors.

Businesses Need Continuity and Predictability

The issue is already a reality for businesses. Among those that responded to the survey, 85% hire or plan to hire immigrants, and 77% associate their contribution with maintaining their current operations. The main motivation cited is the shortage of locally available workers, while 70% of immigrant employees hold management, professional, technical or specialized positions.

Frequent changes to rules create a pendulum effect that makes recruitment and investment planning more difficult for businesses, disrupts the lives of people who have studied, worked and built their lives in Quebec, and complicates planning for housing, French-language integration and services. This instability can even weaken capacity by causing Quebec to lose workers needed to build housing or provide essential care and services.

The network also stresses that Quebec should not have to choose between immigration and productivity. Automation, technological investment and access to skilled workers are complementary levers for addressing population aging and maintaining business competitiveness.

A Call to Political Parties

At a time when the future of the metropolitan region has received limited attention during the election campaign, the Network is calling on every political party to clarify its demographic and economic vision for Greater Montreal and Quebec as a whole. It is asking for clear commitments on its four key recommendations: reversing the projected demographic decline of Greater Montreal, holding a Quebec-wide summit on the province’s demographic future, creating a Quebec framework for assessing capacity independently of immigration levels, and better aligning immigration with labour market needs.

The development of the metropolitan region and that of other regions are not mutually exclusive. Needs and priorities differ from one territory to another, but the consequences of a decline in Greater Montreal would be felt across the province. Quebec must plan for its future at the provincial level, not by pitting regions against one another, but by adopting a coordinated approach to addressing its needs and ensuring its prosperity.

About the Network Greater Montreal Chambers of Commerce 

The Greater Montreal Chambers of Commerce Network brings together chambers of commerce active throughout the metropolitan region to provide a coordinated voice on economic, demographic and labour market issues affecting their businesses and communities. This study is an initiative of the Network, conducted in collaboration with Aviseo Conseil and with the support of the Metropolitan Community of Montreal.

Participating Chambers: Chambre de commerce du Montréal métropolitain, Chambre de commerce et d’industrie de la Rive-Sud, Chambre de commerce et d’industrie de Laval, Chambre de commerce et d’industrie du Grand Roussillon, Chambre de commerce et d’industrie de Vaudreuil-Soulanges, Chambre de commerce de l’Ouest-de-l’Île-de-Montréal, Chambre de commerce et d’industrie Saint-Laurent-Mont-Royal, Chambre de commerce de Montréal Centre Sud-Ouest, Chambre de commerce et d’industrie de Montréal-Nord, Chambre de commerce et d’industrie des Moulins, Chambre de commerce de la MRC de l’Assomption, Chambre de commerce et d’industrie Vallée-du-Richelieu-Rouville.

About Aviseo Conseil

Aviseo Conseil is a Montreal-based boutique strategy and economics consulting firm that has been supporting private, public and institutional organizations across Quebec in their strategic decision-making since 2015. Its team of economists and strategists conducts independent economic analyses, impact studies and forward-looking research.

Source and Information

Valérie Vézina
Deputy General Manager
East Montreal Chamber of Commerce
vvezina@ccemontreal.ca

ABOUT THE WEST ISLAND CHAMBER OF COMMERCE

The West Island Chamber of Commerce (WIMCC) is the voice of the West Island business community and is committed to encouraging and promoting the development of the business community.

Media Inquiries: Sophia Lavergne, General Manager, West Island Montreal Chamber of Commerce

T. 514.697.4228 ext. 103 | slavergne@ccoim.ca